Black Hole Mergers To Be Predicted Years In Advance By The 2030s
“When we detect black hole-black hole events with LIGO, it’s only the last few orbits that have a large enough amplitude to be seen above the background noise. The entirety of the signal’s duration lasts from a few hundred milliseconds to only a couple of seconds. By time a signal is collected, identified, processed, and localized, the critical merger event has already passed. There’s no way to point your telescopes — the ones that could find an electromagnetic counterpart to the signal — quickly enough to catch them from birth. Even inspiraling and merging neutron stars could only last tens of seconds before the critical “chirp” moment arrives. Processing time, even under ideal conditions, makes predicting the particular when-and-where a signal will occur a practical impossibility. But all of this will change with LISA.”
The past few years have ushered in the era of gravitational wave astronomy, turning a once-esoteric and controversial prediction of General Relativity into a robust, observational science. Less than a year ago, with three independent detectors online at once, the first localizations of gravitational wave signals were successfully performed. Multi-messenger astronomy, with gravitational waves and an electromagnetic follow-up, came about shortly thereafter, with the first successful neutron star-neutron star merger. But one prediction still eludes us: the ability to know where and when a merger will occur way in advance.