Astronomers Debate: How Many Habitable Planets Does Each Sun-Like Star Have?
“We know that there are between 200 billion and 400 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy. About 20% of those stars are Sun-like, for about 40-to-80 billion Sun-like stars in our galaxy. There are very likely billions of Earth-sized worlds orbiting those stars with the potential for the right conditions to have liquid water on their surfaces and being otherwise Earth-like, but whether that’s 1 or 2 billion or 50 or 100 billion is still unknown. Future planet-finding and exploring missions will need better answers than we presently have today, and that’s all the more reason to keep looking with every tool in our arsenal.”
Most of the time, in science, the quality of our data drives the size of our uncertainties. When we have very little data and it’s only of poor quality, our uncertainties tend to be large; when we have lots of very good data, our uncertainties shrink. NASA’s Kepler mission has provided astronomers with an unprecedented suite of data on exoplanets, revealing thousands of new worlds beyond our Solar System. And yet, despite all it’s found, if you ask the simple question of “how many Earth-like planets orbit a typical Sun-like star,” answers disagree by a factor of 100: from about 1% of stars have them to there’s between 1 and 2 for each and every such star.