Ask Ethan: How Well Has Cosmic Inflation Been Verified?
“To what margin of error or what level of statistical significance would you say you say inflation has been verified?”
So, you’ve got an alternative theory to our best mainstream scientific ideas? Well, guess what: those are the same shoes that every scientific idea we accept today were wearing at one point in the distant past. The thing that separates them from the ideas that fell by the wayside were three remarkable feats:
1. They reproduced all the earlier successes of the previous prevailing model.
2. They resolved or explained puzzles or problems that the previous model had no sufficient answer for.
3. And, perhaps most importantly, they made new predictions that we could go out and test about the Universe, and those predictions were proven correct by the appropriate experimental or observational test.
Although most people don’t appreciate it, inflation has hurdled all three bars, and has no fewer than four spectacular predictions that have since been confirmed. Come learn how well cosmic inflation has been verified today!
Ask Ethan: Are We Deceiving Ourselves By Searching For B-Modes From Inflation?
“I have a question about B-Modes. I’ve read Dr. Keating’s book, Losing the Nobel Prize. In the book, he details his team’s search for B-modes, and claims this would be smoking gun for inflation. Dr. Hossenfelder, in a blog post, says this isn’t true and there are other ways to produce B-modes. What is the correct view?”
Perhaps the greatest danger in science is to go out, look for a predicted effect, find it, and declare victory. Why is that such a danger? Because your idea for how the effect was generated might not be the only possibility, or even the most accurate one. If I have a wild new theory that predicts some far-distant star will have a habitable planet around it, the detection of that planet does not necessarily mean the wild new theory is correct. When it comes to the origin of the Universe, our leading theory is cosmic inflation, which predicts a B-mode polarization signature in the cosmic microwave background. Are there other ways to generate those B-mode signatures, though? And if we find them, does that mean that inflation is correct, or might that be a premature conclusion?
This is a key problem, and a hard problem, in theoretical physics. But we can say a whole lot that’s intelligent on this topic, and still be correct. Let’s find out.